• Americas
      • Dutch
      • English
      • French
      • Mayan
      • Portuguese (Brazilian)
      • Spanish
    • Central & South Asia
      • Bangla
      • Dari
      • Dhivehi
      • English
      • Farsi
      • Kyrgyz
      See More
    • East Asia & Oceania
      • Indonesian
      • Burmese
      • Chin (Burma)
      • Chinese
      • Portuguese (Continental)
      • English
      See More
    • Europe & Eurasia
      • Armenian
      • Azeri
      • Belarusian
      • Catalan
      • Portuguese (Continental)
      • Croatian
      See More
    • Middle East & North Africa
      • Arabic
      • Azeri
      • Dari
      • English
      • Farsi
      • Hebrew
      See More
    • Sub-Saharan Africa
      • Afaan Oromo
      • Amharic
      • Arabic
      • Portuguese (Continental)
      • English
      • French
      See More
  • Learn More About ICNC's Translations Program

International Center on Nonviolent Conflict

  • About
    • What Is Civil Resistance?
    • Our Work
    • Our Impact
    • Who We Are
    • Jobs & Internships
    • Join Our Mailing List
    • Contact Us
  • Services
    • Online Courses
    • Interactive Workshops
    • Staff Training
    • Coaching
    • Training of Trainers (ToT)
  • Programs
    • Column 2
      • Minds of The Movement Blog
      • ICNC Publications
      • Nonviolent Conflict News
      • ICNC Online Courses
      • Regional Institutes
      • Sign Up
      • ICNC Webinars
      • For Activists & Organizers
      • For Scholars & Students
      • For Policy Community
  • Resource Library
    • English Language Resources
    • Translated Resources
    • ICNC Films
  • Media & Blog
    • For Journalists and Press
    • ICNC Newsmakers
    • Minds of the Movement Blog
  • Translations
    • Afran Oromo
    • Amharic
    • Arabic
    • Armenian
    • Azeri
    • Bahasa Indonesia
    • Bangla
    • Belarusian
    • Burmese
    • Chin (Burma)
    • Chinese
    • Croatian
    • Dutch
    • Estonian
    • Farsi
    • French
    • Georgian
    • German
    • Hebrew
    • Hindi
    • Italian
    • Japanese
    • Jing-Paw (Burma)
    • Karen (Burma)
    • Khmer
    • Kiswahili
    • Kituba
    • Korean
    • Latvian
    • Lingala
    • Lithuanian
    • Macedonian
    • Malagasy
    • Mayan
    • Mon (Burma)
    • Mongolian
    • Nepali
    • Norwegian
    • Pashto
    • Polish
    • Portuguese (Brazilian)
    • Portuguese (Continental)
    • Russian
    • Serbian
    • Sindh
    • Slovak
    • Spanish
    • Tagalog
    • Tamil
    • Thai
    • Tibetan
    • Tigrigna
    • Turkish
    • Ukrainian
    • Urdu
    • Uzbek
    • Vietnamese
    • Xhosa
    • Learn More About ICNC's Translations Program
  • Search
    • Search This Site

Do Contemporaneous Armed Challenges Affect the Outcomes of Mass Nonviolent Campaigns?

View excerpt
Do Contemporaneous Armed Challenges Affect the Outcomes of Mass Nonviolent Campaigns?
Download the Article (PDF, 522 KB)

Do Contemporaneous Armed Challenges Affect the Outcomes of Mass Nonviolent Campaigns?

Civil resistance is a powerful strategy for promoting major social and political change, yet no study has systematically evaluated the effects of simultaneous armed resistance on the success rates of unarmed resistance campaigns. Using the Nonviolent and Violent Conflict Outcomes (NAVCO 1.1) data set, which includes aggregate data on 106 primarily nonviolent resistance campaigns from 1900 to 2006 with maximalist political objectives, we find that contemporaneous armed struggles do not have positive effects on the outcome of nonviolent campaigns.

We do find evidence for an indirect negative effect, in that contemporaneous armed struggles are negatively associated with popular participation and are, consequently, correlated with reduced chances of success for otherwise-unarmed campaigns. Our results suggest that the political effects are beneficial only in the short term, with much more unpredictable and varied long-term outcomes.

Can also be accessed on Erica Chenoweth’s personal website

Erica Chenoweth and Kurt Schock

Mobilization: An International Quarterly, December 2015

Download the Article (PDF, 522 KB)
  • Do Contemporaneous Armed Challenges Affect the Outcomes of Mass Nonviolent Campaigns?
  • Do Contemporaneous Armed Challenges Affect the Outcomes of Mass Nonviolent Campaigns?
  • Do Contemporaneous Armed Challenges Affect the Outcomes of Mass Nonviolent Campaigns?
  • Do Contemporaneous Armed Challenges Affect the Outcomes of Mass Nonviolent Campaigns?
  • Do Contemporaneous Armed Challenges Affect the Outcomes of Mass Nonviolent Campaigns?

You may also be interested in:

  • A Battlefield Transformed: From Guerilla Resistance to Mass Nonviolent Struggle in the Western Sahara

    This paper analyzes the transformation of the Sahrawi pro-independence movement’s strategy from one based on armed struggle and diplomacy to one bas…

  • Military Engagement: Influencing Armed Forces Worldwide to Support Democratic Transitions (Volume 1: Overview and Action Plan)

    This succinct handbook analyzes democratic transitions in five major regions and surveys the internal power dynamics in countries such as Iran and Nor…

  • The Power of Staying Put: Nonviolent Resistance Against Armed Groups in Colombia

    Confronted with civil war, local civilians typically either collaborate with the strongest actor in town or flee the area. Yet civilians are not stuc…

  • Unarmed Insurrections: People Power Movements in Nondemocracies

    In the last two decades of the twentieth century, a wave of “people power” movements erupted throughout the nondemocratic world. In South Africa, …

Return to Resource Library homepage

International Center on Nonviolent Conflict

600 New Hampshire Avenue NW
Suite 1010
Washington, D.C. 20037, USA

+1 202-596-8845

Other ICNC Affiliated Websites

  • Nonviolent Conflict News
  • Online Courses Platform
  • CivilResistance.net

Copyright ©2025 International Center on Nonviolent Conflict · All Rights Reserved

Note: Search results are listed in alphabetical order.