The report’s key argument is that the type of breakthrough critically shapes the political transition that follows it, pushing the transition in either a democratic or undemocratic direction. This occurs because the breakthrough types differ along three key dimensions:

1. the relative power balance between the incumbent regime and opposition actors;

2. the type of actor which takes initiative at the beginning of the transition (as well as the type of initiative the actor takes); and

3. the degree of institutionalization of the transition process.

The movements leading to democracy are those that begin with breakthroughs characterized by a power balance favorable to a nonviolent challenger, an opposition-driven initiative, and institutional channels. Negotiations and elections are the breakthroughs that best approximate these three characteristics and thus are expected to lead to more democratic outcomes.

Author: Dr. Jonathan Pinckney