The Impact of Nonviolent Resistance on Civil War Resolution
In recent years, a burgeoning literature has explored the strategic advantages of using nonviolent resistance to achieve positive political outcomes, such as regime change and democratisation. Yet, despite one-fifth of largescale nonviolent campaigns occurring during the course of a civil war, we know little about the affect nonviolent resistance might have on the transformation of armed conflict. Bringing together the previously isolated literatures on nonviolent resistance and peacebuilding, this manuscript explores how nonviolent resistance can aid peacebuilding efforts that transform ongoing armed conflict, using data on all civil wars episodes since 1945. The finding show nonviolent resistance does have a positive impact on the resolution of armed conflict, with evidence deriving from a Large-N statistical analysis, out-of-sample prediction and structured-focused case studies.
About the Author:
Dr Luke Abbs is a researcher at the BLG Data Research Centre and Research Fellow at the Department of Government (both at the University of Essex). Luke engages in applied data analytics, using statistical methods and supervised machine learning prediction. His role at the Centre is two-fold: to aid the prediction of political conflict within the academic field of political science and to inform policy questions from the Centre’s stakeholders (i.e. local government and charities).
His academic research is focused on developing two important bodies of conflict research. Firstly, the emergence and dynamics of nonviolent resistance campaigns, and the impact that nonviolent campaigns have on civil war and the resolution of armed conflict. Secondly, the prediction of armed violence and the effectiveness of local UN peacekeeping, with current studies on Darfur, the Central African Republic and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
His policy role involves engagement with the Centre’s UK stakeholders, such as Essex County Council and Essex Police, exploring a range of policy questions and data analysis related to crime, health and economic growth.