by Luke Abbs
June 2, 2021
Webinar Content
Introduction of Speaker: 0:00–3:32
Presentation: 3:33–30:43
Questions and Answers: 30:44—1:01:37
Webinar Description
ICNC is pleased to host Luke Abbs as he discusses his monograph, The Impact of Nonviolent Resistance on the Peaceful Transformation of Civil War. Events in the last ten years have shown the extraordinary impact that nonviolent resistance can have on political change. Echoing this sentiment, research shows that nonviolent campaigns against the government have a strategic advantage over armed rebellions and are more successful in achieving regime change and democratization. Yet, little is known of the impact these campaigns have on the trajectory and transformation of civil war. The common misperception is that during civil war, unarmed civilians are withdrawn, often victims of violence and are thus passive in contrast to the armed factions. The monograph discussed in this webinar joins a growing number of studies that directly challenge this assumption, exploring the impact that wartime nonviolent campaigns have on conflict transformation during active armed conflict and the post-conflict period.
In this webinar Luke explores the following key questions of the monograph:
- Does large-scale and sustained nonviolent resistance increase the likelihood of negotiated resolution of civil war?
- Do nonviolent movements increase the durability of peace and democratization after a civil war has ended?
- What characteristics of nonviolent movements help to explain these relationships?
In the webinar Luke presents two key arguments: first, that large-scale nonviolent campaigns increase the likelihood of a negotiated settlement to civil war by undermining governmental power in ways that open up political space and empower civil society, and promote constructive change which redefines societal relations; second, that the constructive legacy of these campaigns then increases the likelihood of democratization after armed conflict comes to an end.
Luke supports these argument with statistical evidence, based on a global sample of cases between 1955 and 2013, and case study evidence from South Africa and Mali. Not only are nonviolent campaigns active in over 20 percent of civil wars, but they are shown to have an important impact on peace, further adding evidence to the notion that nonviolent campaigns are important agents of change.
About the Presenter
Dr. Luke Abbs is a research fellow at the Centre for Religion, Reconciliation and Peace (CRRP) and visiting fellow at the Department of Government, University of Essex. Luke engages in applied data analytics, using statistical methods and supervised machine learning prediction to analyze the dynamics of political conflict and to inform key policy questions about peace and armed conflict. Along with the published monograph discussed in this webinar, his work has been published in the Journal of Peace Research, Journal of Conflict Resolution, the Journal of Global Security Studies and Mobilization.
Luke’s research is focused on developing two important streams of peace and conflict research. The first stream explores the emergence and dynamics of nonviolent resistance campaigns, and the impact nonviolent resistance has on the peaceful resolution of armed conflict. Luke’s recent focus has been on the impact of specific nonviolent actors (such as religious organizations and peace movements) and the nonviolent tactics deployed during civil war peace processes. His second stream is focused on the dynamics of civil war, including the impact of armed militias on peace processes in Africa and the effectiveness of UN peacekeeping with current studies on Darfur, the Central African Republic and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Luke has engaged in various consultancies for the United Nations Operations Crisis Center (UNOCC), Conciliation Resources, the International Center on Nonviolent Conflict (ICNC) and the United States Institute for Peace (USIP). In his previous role at the University of Essex, Luke worked extensively with policy makers in local government and police forces (such as Essex County Council, Essex Police and the West Midlands Violence Reduction Unit), using quantitative methods to support collaborative and evidence-based research projects.
Recommended Readings
Powering to Peace: Integrated Civil Resistance and Peacebuilding Strategies by Véronique Dudouet
“Civil Resistance Amid Civil War” by Peace Science Digest
“How Nonviolent Resistance Works: Factors for Successful Peacebuilding in Samaniego, Colombia” by Cécile Mouly, María Belén Garrido, and Annette Idler
“In Colombia’s Decades-Long Civil War, One Community Vows Neutrality” by Alexandra Hall
Janel B. Galvanek is the Head of the Sub-Saharan Africa Unit at the Berghof Foundation in Berlin, Germany. With its programming in Somalia, Ethiopia and Zimbabwe, the Unit supports the capacity-building of insider mediators and infrastructures for peace (I4P) and fosters multi-track dialogue among and between various communities. On a volunteer basis, Janel is the director of Growing Tree Liberia, an NGO based in Germany that supports programs for disadvantaged children in Liberia. She holds a Master’s degree in Peace Research and Security Policy from Hamburg University and an MA from Georgetown University in Washington, DC.
James Suah Shilue is Executive Director for Liberian NGO, Platform for Dialogue and Peace (P4DP) since June 2012. Prior to occupying this position, he served as Liberia’s Programme Coordinator for UN Joint Programme/Interpeace Initiative (2007-2012). He presently serves as chairman for CSOs Cluster on peacebuilding and national reconciliation. He is also an adjunct lecturer at the Department of Sociology & Anthropology at the University of Liberia. His professional areas of interest include social research, post war reconstruction & development, rule of law, peacebuilding and conflict prevention, youth, women peace and security and human security. He has enormous experience working with national and international stakeholders to communicate complex findings into policy relevant action plans. He holds a master’s degree in social and Community Studies (De Montfort University, UK) and an MA in Development Studies (Institute of Social Studies, The Netherlands).
Véronique Dudouet is a Senior Research Advisor at Berghof Foundation in Berlin (Germany). Since 2005, she has managed various collaborative research projects on non-state armed groups, inclusive peace processes, negotiation and mediation, post-war political/security transitions, protest movements and nonviolent transitions of power. She conducts regular policy advice, peer-to-peer advice and training seminars for/with conflict and peacebuilding stakeholders. She also carries out consultancy research for international agencies (e.g. UNDP, UNDPO, OECD-DAC, EEAS, GIZ). She is member of the French Research Institute for Nonviolent Conflict Resolution (IRNC), and steering committee member of the Politics After War (PAW) research network. In March-October 2019, she was a Jennings Randolph Senior Fellow at the U.S. Institute of Peace in Washington DC. She has authored numerous publications (including three books) in the fields of conflict transformation and nonviolent resistance. She holds an MA and a PhD in Conflict Resolution from the University of Bradford, UK, and a BA in political science and MPhil in International Relations and Security from the Institut d’Etudes Politiques, Toulouse, France.
Ches Thurber is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Political Science at Northern Illinois University. His book, Between Mao and Gandhi: The Social Roots of Civil Resistance, will be published by Cambridge University Press later this year. In the book, Dr. Thurber investigates how social structures inform movements’ willingness to engage in nonviolent and violent strategies. Dr. Thurber’s previous research has been published in International Studies Quarterly, the Journal of Global Security Studies, Conflict Management and Peace Science, and other outlets. He received his PhD from The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.
Subindra Bogati is the Founder and Chief Executive of Nepal Peacebuilding Initiative—an organization devoted to evidence-based policy and action on peacebuilding and humanitarian issues. He has been working for conflict transformation and peace process in Nepal through various national and international organizations for the last several years. Until recently, he was one of the principal investigators of the two year-long research, dialogue and policy project on “Innovations in Peacebuilding,” which was a partnership between University of Denver, Chr. Michelsen Institue (CMI) in Bergen, the Center for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation in South Africa, and the Nepal Peacebuilding Initiative, Nepal. He holds an MA in International Relations from London Metropolitan University and was awarded the FCO Chevening Fellowship in 2009 at the Centre for Studies in Security and Diplomacy, the University of Birmingham. He is a PhD candidate in the department of Political Science, Tribhuvan University, Nepal.
Véronique Dudouet is a Senior Research Advisor at Berghof Foundation in Berlin (Germany). Since 2005, she has managed various collaborative research projects on non-state armed groups, inclusive peace processes, negotiation and mediation, post-war political/security transitions, protest movements and nonviolent transitions of power. She conducts regular policy advice, peer-to-peer advice and training seminars for/with conflict and peacebuilding stakeholders. She also carries out consultancy research for international agencies (e.g. UNDP, UNDPO, OECD-DAC, EEAS, GIZ). She is member of the French Research Institute for Nonviolent Conflict Resolution (IRNC), and steering committee member of the Politics After War (PAW) research network. In March-October 2019, she was a Jennings Randolph Senior Fellow at the U.S. Institute of Peace in Washington DC. She has authored numerous publications (including three books) in the fields of conflict transformation and nonviolent resistance. She holds an MA and a PhD in Conflict Resolution from the University of Bradford, UK, and a BA in political science and MPhil in International Relations and Security from the Institut d’Etudes Politiques, Toulouse, France.
Jonathan Pinckney is senior researcher for the Program on Nonviolent Action at the United States Institute of Peace, where he conducts applied research on nonviolent action, peacebuilding, and democratization. He is the author of From Dissent to Democracy: The Promise and Peril of Civil Resistance Transitions from Oxford University Press (2020), as well as numerous academic and general outlet articles. He received his PhD in 2018 from the University of Denver.
Michael Beer serves as the Director of Nonviolence International, an innovative and respected Washington DC based nonprofit promoting nonviolent approaches to international conflicts. Since 1991 he has worked with NVI to serve marginalized people who seek to use nonviolent tactics often in difficult and dangerous environments. This includes diaspora activists, multinational coalitions, global social movements, as well as within countries including: Myanmar, Tibet, Indonesia, Russia, Thailand, Palestine, Cambodia, East Timor, Iran, India, Kosovo, Zimbabwe, Sudan, and the United States. Michael Beer has a special expertise in supporting movements against dictators and in support of global organizing for justice, environment, and peace. Michael co-parents two teenagers with his patient life partner, Latanja.
Dr. Peter Ackerman is the Founding Chair of ICNC, and one of the world’s leading authorities on nonviolent conflict. He holds a Ph.D. from The Fletcher School, Tufts University, and is also co-author of two seminal books on nonviolent resistance, 
Shaazka Beyerle is Senior Fellow at the 
Maria J. Stephan’s career has bridged the academic, policy, and non-profit sectors, with a focus on the role of civil resistance and nonviolent movements in advancing human rights, democratic freedoms, and sustainable peace in the US and globally. She most recently directed the Program on Nonviolent Action at the U.S. Institute of Peace, overseeing cutting-edge research and programming focused on the nexus of nonviolent action and peacebuilding. Stephan is the co-author (with Erica Chenoweth) of Why Civil Resistance Works: The Strategic Logic of Nonviolent Conflict, which was awarded the 2012 Woodrow Wilson Foundation Prize by the American Political Science Association for the best book published in political science, and the 2013 Grawemeyer Award for Ideas Improving World Order. She is the co-author of Bolstering Democracy: Lessons Learned and the Path Forward (Atlantic Council, 2018); the co-editor of Is Authoritarianism Staging a Comeback? (Atlantic Council, 2015); and the editor of Civilian Jihad: Nonviolent Struggle, Democratization and Governance in the Middle East (Palgrave, 2009). From 2009-14, Stephan was lead foreign affairs officer in the U.S. State Department’s Bureau of Conflict and Stabilization Operations, receiving two Meritorious Service Awards for her work in Afghanistan and Turkey. She later co-directed the Future of Authoritarianism initiative at the Atlantic Council. Stephan has taught at Georgetown University and American University. She received her BA in political science from Boston College and her MA and PhD from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. Stephan, a native Vermonter, is a lifetime member of the Council on Foreign Relations.
Steve Crawshaw is the author of Street Spirit: The Power of Protest and Mischief, foreword by Ai Weiwei, which has been translated into Arabic, Chinese and other languages.
Ramesh Sharma is Ekta Parishad’s National Coordinator. He and his team have continued in the Gandhian tradition of constructive resistance by building alternative institutions to increase self-reliance, while also engaging in rallies, marches, and other mobilization to achieve reforms, protect rights, and demand access to needed resources for villagers across India.
Valerie Traore is the Founder and Executive Director of Niyel. Valerie has over fifteen years of professional experience in campaigning and advocacy on a wide range of issues including human rights and rights based programming, development, human security and conflict, politics and international relations. In that capacity Valerie has led the development and implementation of advocacy and mobilization strategy for over 20 international organizations.
Hardy Merriman is President and CEO of the International Center on Nonviolent Conflict (ICNC). He has worked in the field of civil resistance for over 18 years, presenting at workshops for activists and organizers around the world; speaking widely about civil resistance movements with academics, journalists, and members of international organizations; and developing resources for practitioners and scholars. His writings have been translated into numerous languages. Most recently, Mr. Merriman co-authored the ICNC Special Report 
